The increase in Brazilian exports to China has offset the decline caused by the US tariffs on Brazilian sales, which began in August with a surcharge of up to 50 percent.

From August to November, the value of exports to China grew 28.6 percent from the same period in 2024, while those bound for the US fell 25.1 percent.

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A similar trend can be observed in terms of foreign sales volume. When headed for Chinese ports and airports, the increase stands at 30 percent. For the US, however, there was a 23.5-percent decline.

The data can be found in the Foreign Trade Indicator report, or Icomex, released Thursday (Dec. 18) by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), based on results provided by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services.

China is Brazil’s main trading partner, ahead of the US. According to Icomex, China’s share – which receives about 30 percent of Brazilian exports – helped offset the drop in sales to the US.

“[US President Donald] Trump overestimated the United States’ ability to cause widespread damage to Brazilian exports,” the report says.

Sectors impacted

The sectors that saw the biggest drops in exports to the US from August to November were:

Non-metallic mineral extraction: -72.9%
Beverage manufacturing: -65.7%
Tobacco product manufacturing: -65.7%
Metallic mineral extraction: -65.3%
Forestry production: -60.2%
Manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment: -51.2%
Manufacture of wood products: -49.4%

Annual performance

The survey notes that sales volume to the US grew steadily from April to July, when compared to the same month in 2024. However, with the introduction of the tariff, four months of decline were recorded.

Variation in export volume to the US in 2025 compared to the same month in 2024:

April: +13.3%
May: +9%
June: +8.5%
July: +6.7%
August: -12.7%
September: -16.6%
October: -35.3%
November: -28%

Exports to China jumped after the tariffs began:

April: +6.4%
May: +8.1%
June: +10.3%
July: −0.3%
August: +32.7%
September: +15.2%
October: +32.7%
November: +42.8%

FGV associate researcher Lia Valls points out that one of the factors that led to the increase in Chinese exports was soybean shipments, which were concentrated in the second half of the year.

“When exports to the US were falling, exports to China began to increase, which had an impact on the country’s overall exports,” she told Agência Brasil.

In the year-to-November data, Brazil’s total exports were up 4.3 percent compared to the same 11 months of 2024.

US tariffs

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs came into effect in August 2025. By raising taxes on imported goods, the US government claims it intends to protect the US economy, as taxation encourages Americans to manufacture products locally rather than purchasing them from abroad. 

In the case of Brazil, which suffered from one of the highest rates, the US president also claimed it was retaliation for Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump considered to be persecuted, before being convicted by the Federal Supreme Court in September 2025 for attempting a coup d’état.

Since then, the Brazilian and US governments have been negotiating ways to reach agreements for a trade partnership, including direct talks between Trump and Lula.

On November 20, Trump removed an additional 40-percent tax on 269 products, 249 of which are from the agricultural sector, such as meat and coffee.

“The effects of this removal should not be visible until December and January,” the report says.

Brazil’s vice-president and minister of development, industry, trade, and services, Geraldo Alckmin, estimates that 22 percent of exports to the US remain subject to surcharges.