The decline in inflation and the economic slowdown led the Brazilian Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged. Unanimously, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the Selic rate, the economy’s benchmark interest rate, at 15 percent per year.

In a statement, Copom gave no indication of when it might begin to cut interest rates. As in its last meeting, it reiterated that the current scenario is marked by significant uncertainty, which requires caution in monetary policy, and that the bank’s strategy is to maintain the current Selic rate for an extended period.

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“The committee believes that the present strategy of maintaining the current interest rate for a prolonged period is appropriate to ensure that inflation converges with the target. The committee emphasizes that it will remain vigilant, that future monetary policy steps may be adjusted, and that, as usual, it will not hesitate to resume the adjustment cycle if it deems it appropriate,” the statement said.

This is the fourth consecutive meeting in which Copom has kept the basic interest rate unchanged. The rate is at its highest level since July 2006, when it stood at 15.25 percent per year. The Selic rate reached 15 percent per year at the June meeting and has remained at that level since.

Inflation

The Selic rate is the Central Bank’s main tool for curbing Brazil’s official inflation, as gauged by consumer price index IPCA. In November, it stood at 0.18 percent, the lowest level for the month since 2018. With this result, the index has accumulated a 4.46 percent increase over 12 months, returning to within the ceiling of the continuous inflation target.

Under the new continuous target system, in effect since January, the inflation target to be pursued by the Central Bank, as defined by the National Monetary Council, is 3 percent, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points above or below. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5 percent and the upper limit is 4.5 percent.

In this model, the target is calculated monthly based on the accumulated inflation over the previous 12 months.

The basic interest rate is applied in government bond trading through the Special Settlement and Custody System (Selic) and serves as a benchmark for other interest rates in the economy.

Brazil’s Ministry of Planning and Budget confirmed Wednesday (Dec. 10) that the country’s minimum wage will be adjusted from the current BRL 1,518 (USD 276.70) to BRL 1,621 (USD 295.53), an increase of BRL 103 (USD 18.78) – or 6.79 percent.

The amount was confirmed after the release of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), used to calculate the annual minimum wage adjustment. The indicator registered 0.03 percent in October and has increased 4.18 percent in 12 months.  

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The minimum wage adjustment will be applied in January 2026, affecting the wages workers receive in February.

Brazil’s official inflation closed out November at 0.18 percent, bringing the country’s price index IPCA to 4.46 percent over 12 months.

As a result, the IPCA returns to the government’s target range of up to 4.5 percent for the 12-month period. In the 12-month span ending in October, the rate was 4.68 percent. The index had been outside the tolerance range for 13 months. 

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The data were released Wednesday (Dec. 10) by the statistics bureau IBGE.

The November figure is the lowest for the month since 2018, when the variation stood at -0.21 percent.

In October, the IPCA had been 0.09 percent. The main impact on the acceleration from October to November was the price of airline tickets, which rose 11.9 percent, representing 0.07 percentage points of the total inflation for the month.

Target

The government’s inflation target is three percent over 12 months, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below – a maximum of 4.5 percent.

Since the beginning of 2025, the target assessment period has been based on the previous 12 months, rather than just the end of the year (December). The target is considered unmet if the tolerance range is exceeded for six consecutive months.

According to research manager Fernando Gonçalves, if December inflation stays at up to 0.56 percent, the country will end the year with the IPCA at the upper limit of the government’s target. The December result will be announced on January 9.

The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. In total, prices are collected for 377 products and services. As it stands today, the minimum wage is BRL 1,518 (USD 277.18). Prices are collected in ten metropolitan areas across Brazil.

Interest rates

On Wednesday night, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to announce the Brazilian benchmark interest rate, the Selic, currently at 15 percent per year — the highest level since July 2006 (15.25%).

The upward trend began in September last year, due to the Central Bank’s concern about rising inflation.

The Selic is the government’s main instrument for combating inflation. High interest rates make credit more expensive and discourage investment and consumption, thus acting as a brake on the economy, reducing demand for products and services and cooling inflation as a result.

Brazil opened 4.6 million new small businesses from January to November 2025, a number that already exceeds the result for 2024, when 4.1 million companies were created. The data show a 19 percent increase over the same period last year, consolidating the best performance since they began to be compiled.

Small businesses accounted for 97 percent of the companies opened in the country in 2025. Among them, 77 percent are individual microentrepreneurs (MEI), 19 percent are microenterprises, and 4 percent are small businesses.

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The head of the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service (Sebrae), Décio Lima, says that the growth reflects entrepreneurs’ confidence in the economic scenario. According to him, the country is experiencing “full employment and inflation under control,” factors that encourage the opening of new businesses.

“Sixty percent of Brazilians dream of becoming entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship is a gateway to inclusion, job creation, and income,” he said.

In November, the country registered the opening of 350,000 new small businesses, 28,000 more than in the same month in 2024.

Services lead new registrations

The service sector accounted for 64 percent of new businesses opened through November. In this segment, the opening of MEIs grew 24.5 percent compared to the same period in 2024. Next came commerce, with 21 percent of the total, and industry, with 7 percent.

São Paulo (29%), Minas Gerais (11%), and Rio de Janeiro (8%) were the states with the highest number of small business openings in 2025.

A study by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) indicates that Brazil has significant geological potential for critical minerals, but until recently, it had not been able to translate this potential into substantial economic production and lagged far behind countries such as Australia, China, South Africa, and Chile, among others.

Critical minerals are essential resources for strategic sectors such as technology, defense, and the energy transition, with their supply subject to risks of scarcity or dependence on a few suppliers. These minerals include lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, which are crucial for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and semiconductors.

Brazil, for example, possesses about 10 percent of the world’s reserves of these minerals, according to data from the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram), an entity representing the private sector.

The study How Important Is Brazil in the Global Chain of Critical Minerals for the Energy Transition? An Analysis of Reserves, Production, Foreign Trade, and Investments, by researchers Rafael da Silveira Soares Leão, Mariano Laio de Oliveira, and Danúbia Rodrigues da Cunha, was released on Thursday (Dec. 4).

According to the survey, Brazil’s performance in international trade over the past two decades has been modest, reflecting internal challenges and uncertainty in mineral production. “However, the expansion of investments in physical capital and the renewed spending on geological research in recent years, in line with global trends, appear to be preparing the country for a virtuous cycle of production growth,” the researchers say.

The research concludes that a new cycle of investments, “apparently underway,” could elevate Brazilian mining to a higher level of competitiveness, “but it is important that expectations regarding the sector’s impact on the Brazilian economy remain realistic.”

According to the authors of the study, from 2000 to 2019, Brazil’s mining production chain accounted for between 0.75 and 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on cycles of expansion and contraction in mineral commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which represents more than two-thirds of the sector.

The Brazilian economy grew 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter.

Compared to the third quarter of 2024, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total value of goods and services produced in the country, rose 1.8 percent.

In the last four quarters, GDP grew 2.7 percent.

The data were released on Thursday (Dec. 4) by the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE.

The quarterly increase of 0.1 percent is considered by IBGE to be stable, that is, not significant. However, the result marks the 17th consecutive quarterly expansion.

According to the agency, GDP reached BRL 3.2 trillion.

Sectors

From the second to the third quarter, industry posted the highest growth (0.8%), followed by agriculture (0.4%). The performance of services, which account for the largest share of GDP, remained virtually unchanged at 0.1 percent.

Analyzing the performance of activities within the services sector, the key highlights were:

• Transportation, storage, and mail: 2.7 percent
• Information and communication: 1.5 percent
• Real estate activities: 0.8 percent

IBGE Quarterly Accounts analyst Claudia Dionísio explains that the performance of the transportation sector reflects the flow of mineral and agricultural production.

In the quarter, commerce, which is also part of the services sector, grew by 0.4 percent.

In the industrial sector, extractive industries grew by 1.7 percent, construction by 1.3 percent, and manufacturing by 0.3 percent, while the electricity and gas, water, sewage, and waste management segment declined by 1.0 percent.

On the expenditure side, household consumption remained virtually stable, increasing by 0.1 percent, while government consumption grew by 1.3 percent.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), an indicator measuring the expansion of a country’s productive capacity through investment, rose by 0.9 percent.

What does gross domestic product (GDP) represent?

GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a given location over a specific period. This measure allows for tracking the economic performance of a country, state, or city, as well as making international comparisons.

GDP is calculated using various sectoral surveys, such as those for trade, services, and industry.

During GDP calculation, care is taken to avoid double counting. For example, if a country produces BRL 100 of wheat, BRL 200 of wheat flour, and BRL 300 of bread, the GDP will be BRL 300, since the values of the wheat and flour are already included in the value of the bread.

The final goods and services that make up GDP are measured at the prices at which they reach consumers, including any taxes levied.

GDP helps to understand a country’s economic reality, but it does not reflect factors such as income distribution or living conditions. For example, a country may have a high GDP but a relatively low standard of living, while another may have a low GDP and a very high quality of life.

More than 8.6 million Brazilians left the poverty line in 2024. This socioeconomic performance brought the share of the population living in poverty down from 27.3 percent in 2023 to 23.1 percent. It is the lowest level recorded since 2012, when the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE began compiling these data.

In 2024, Brazil had 48.9 million people living on less than USD 6.85 per day, equivalent to about BRL 694 per month, adjusted for inflation that year. This is the threshold the World Bank uses to define the poverty line. In 2023, 57.6 million Brazilians were living in poverty.

The data are part of the Summary of Social Indicators survey, released on Wednesday (Dec. 3).

The indicators show a third consecutive year of decline in both the number and proportion of poor people, marking a post-pandemic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis that began in 2020.

See how poverty has evolved in the country:

• 2012: 68.4 million
• 2019: 67.5 million (last year before the pandemic)
• 2020: 64.7 million
• 2021: 77 million
• 2022: 66.4 million
• 2023: 57.6 million
• 2024: 48.9 million

In 2012, the proportion of people below the poverty line was 34.7 percent. In 2019, it stood at 32.6 percent. In the first year of the pandemic (2020), it fell to 31.1 percent and reached its highest point in the series in 2021, at 36.8 percent. Since then, it has declined year after year, from 31.6 percent in 2022 to 23.1 percent last year.

Work and income transfer

IBGE researcher André Geraldo de Moraes Simões, responsible for the study, explained that in 2020, the year the pandemic broke out, poverty declined because of emergency assistance programs, such as Emergency Aid, paid by the Brazilian government.

“These benefits returned in April 2021, but with lower amounts and more limited access, and the labor market was still fragile, so poverty increased,” said Simões.

According to him, beginning in 2022, the labor market started to recover, accompanied by assistance programs with higher benefit amounts, factors that supported socioeconomic improvement.

“The combination of a stronger labor market and expanded income-transfer programs - mainly Bolsa Família and Auxílio Brasil, which rose in value and reached more people - contributed to this outcome,” he noted.

In the second half of 2022, the Auxílio Brasil program began to pay BRL 600 per month to low-income families. In 2023, the program was renamed Bolsa Família.

Extreme poverty

In the last year, Brazil also saw a decline in extreme poverty, defined as living on an income of up to USD 2.15 per day, or about BRL 218 per month when adjusted for last year’s values.

From 2023 to 2024, this contingent fell from 9.3 million to 7.4 million, meaning that 1.9 million people left this condition. This evolution caused the proportion of the population in extreme poverty to drop from 4.4 percent to 3.5 percent, the lowest level ever recorded.

In 2012, when these data began to be compiled, the rate stood at 6.6 percent. In 2021, it reached 9 percent, equivalent to 18.9 million people.

Regional inequality

The IBGE figures clearly show regional inequality: both poverty and extreme poverty in the North and Northeast remain above the national rate.

Poverty
• Northeast: 39.4 percent
• North: 35.9 percent
• Brazil: 23.1 percent
• Southeast: 15.6 percent
• Midwest: 15.4 percent
• South: 11.2 percent

Extreme poverty
• Northeast: 6.5 percent
• North: 4.6 percent
• Brazil: 3.5 percent
• Southeast: 2.3 percent
• Midwest: 1.6 percent
• South: 1.5 percent

“These are the country’s most vulnerable regions, and this is also reflected in their labor markets,” says André Simões.

Another inequality highlighted in the survey is racial: among white Brazilians, 15.1 percent were living in poverty, and 2.2 percent in extreme poverty.

Among black Brazilians, poverty reached 25.8 percent, and extreme poverty 3.9 percent. Among the mixed-race population, the figures were 29.8 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

Lowest Gini since 2012

The Summary of Social Indicators updated the so-called Gini Index, which measures income inequality. The index ranges from 0 to 1 - the higher the number, the greater the inequality.

In 2024, the Gini Index reached 0.504, the lowest value since these data began to be compiled in 2012. In 2023, it stood at 0.517.

To measure the impact of social programs on reducing inequality, IBGE presented a calculation of what the Gini Index would be if there were no welfare policies.

The study found that the indicator would be 0.542 if there were no income-transfer programs, such as Bolsa Família and the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), which provides one minimum wage per month to seniors aged 65 or older or to people with disabilities of any age.

Another hypothetical exercise carried out by the researchers examined the situation of people aged 60 or over if there were no social security benefits.

Extreme poverty among the elderly would rise from 1.9 percent to 35.4 percent, the institute projects. Poverty would increase from 8.3 percent to 52.3 percent.

The survey also shows that poverty was more prevalent among informal workers. Among those employed without a formal contract, one in five (20.4%) were poor. Among workers with a formal contract, the share was 6.7 percent.

The Brazilian government has concluded sanitary and phytosanitary negotiations with the Philippines, Guatemala, and Nicaragua to expand agricultural exports to these countries.

In the Philippines, health authorities approved the export of beef fat, an input used in the food industry and in the production of low-carbon energy, especially green diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

From January to October 2025, the Southeast Asian country imported nearly USD 1.5 billion in agricultural products from Brazil.

In Nicaragua, phytosanitary authorities authorized Brazil to export millet, crotalaria, and turnip seeds - inputs for tropical agriculture that help increase productivity and reduce dependence on mineral fertilizers. From January to October 2025, Nicaragua imported approximately USD 55 million in agricultural products from Brazil.

In Guatemala, the Brazilian government obtained phytosanitary authorization to export processed rice. From January to October 2025, the country imported more than USD 192 million in agricultural products from Brazil.

“The results reinforce the strategy of diversifying destinations and products, including higher value-added items,” the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Brazil’s unemployment rate reached 5.4 percent in the quarter ending in October – the lowest recorded by the statistics bureau IBGE since 2012. The period also ended with a record number of people with formal employment and average worker income. The data were released Friday (Nov. 28).

Survey highlights include:

• Unemployment in the quarter ending in October fell to 5.4 percent. In the previous moving quarter ending in September, it stood at 5.6 percent. In the quarter ending in October 2024, the rate was 6.2 percent.
   
• The highest rate ever recorded was 14.9 percent, reached in two periods – in the moving quarters ending in September 2020 and March 2021, both during the COVID-19 pandemic.
   
• The number of unemployed reached 5.910 million – the lowest number in the historical series. This total represents a drop of 11.8 percent (788 thousand fewer people looking for work) compared to the same quarter of 2024. The total number of employed people stood at 102.5 million, a record high.
   
• The total number of employed people with formal contracts reached 39.182 million, another record in the survey.
   
• Total payroll – the increase in income and the growing number of employed people meant that the total income of workers reached a record BRL 357.3 billion, a five-percent increase in one year.

High interest rates and maximum income

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IBGE’s Household Survey Coordinator Adriana Beringuy points out that income acts as a stimulus to the economy, counterbalancing high interest rates, which make credit more expensive and tend to slow down the economy. “Having this income at high levels has an influence on consumption,” she says.

The Brazilian economy’s benchmark interest rate – the Selic – stands at 15 percent per year, the highest level since 2006. This is an effort by the Central Bank to curb inflation, which has been above the government’s target of 4.5 percent for 13 months.

Sectors

Of the ten activity groups surveyed, two saw an increase in employment – construction (2.6 percent, or 192 thousand more people) and public administration, defense, social security, education, human health, and social services (1.3 percent, or 252 thousand more people). The only sector to see a decline was classified as other services (2.8 percent, or 156 thousand fewer people).

Labor market

The survey assesses labor market behavior for people aged 14 and over and takes into account all forms of employment – whether formal or informal, temporary or self-employed, for example.

According to the institute’s criteria, only people who actively sought employment in the 30 days prior to the survey are considered unemployed. A total of 211 thousand households are visited across all Brazilian states plus the Federal District.

Informality

In the quarter ending in October, the informality rate – the proportion of the employed population not benefiting from labor rights – stood at 37.8 percent, representing 38.7 million informal workers. This is the same level as in the quarter ending in July and the previous moving average, and below the 38.9 percent recorded in the quarter ending in October 2024.

Ministry of Labor and Employment

The survey was released the day after another labor market indicator was prepared by the Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Employment, which only tracks formally registered employees.

In it, October saw a net increase of 85,100 formal jobs. Over 12 months, the balance is positive at 1.35 million formal jobs.

Petrobras’ board of directors unanimously approved its 2026–2030 business plan at a meeting on Thursday (Nov. 27). Brazil’s state-run oil giant forecasts total investments of USD 109 billion, with USD 91 billion going to projects in the portfolio of projects in implementation and USD 18 billion to portfolio of projects under evaluation – which consists of opportunities with a lower degree of maturity, subject to additional feasibility studies before implementation.

The current plan saw a slight reduction of 1.8 percent from the 2025–29 plan, when Petrobras approved investments of USD 111 billion, of which USD 98 billion was in the implementation portfolio and USD 13 billion in the evaluation portfolio.

“Our investments represent a significant volume for the Brazilian economy – USD 109 billion – which accounts for five percent of total investments in the country. Our projects have the potential to generate and sustain 311 thousand direct and indirect jobs, and we will contribute BRL 1.4 trillion in taxes to municipalities, states, and the federal government over the next five years,” said Petrobras President Magda Chambriard.

She said the company will continue to lead the way in the just energy transition, promoting sustainable development in the country, contributing to national energy security, generating value, and sharing the results with Brazilian society.

Brazil recorded its best results in income, inequality, and poverty since this time series began in 1995, according to a technical note from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea). The study was released this Tuesday (Nov. 25) with data from the Brazilian government’s statistics agency, IBGE.

Over 30 years, per capita household income grew by about 70 percent, the Gini coefficient fell by nearly 18 percent, and the extreme poverty rate dropped from 25 percent to less than 5 percent.

Progress was uneven, concentrated between 2003 and 2014, and then resumed strongly between 2021 and 2024. After a prolonged cycle of crises between 2014 and 2021 – marked by recession, slow recovery, and the severe impact of the pandemic – per capita income reached its lowest level in a decade.

The trajectory changed from 2021 onwards: in three consecutive years, average income grew by more than 25 percent in real terms, accompanied by a significant drop in inequality.

“The results show that it is possible to intensely reduce poverty and inequality, but that these movements can also be interrupted or even reversed by various factors. And that it is important to combine different means to achieve these fundamental national objectives,” highlighted Marcos Dantas Hecksher, one of the authors of the study.

Researchers attribute the recent improvement to a booming labor market and the expansion of income transfers, both responsible for almost half of the reduction in inequality and the fall in extreme poverty between 2021 and 2024.

Programs such as Bolsa Família income transfer program, Benefício de Prestação Continuada (Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC), Auxílio Brasil (Brazil Aid), and Auxílio Emergencial (Emergency Aid) became more effective after 2020.

However, the impact of transfers weakened in 2023 and 2024 with the end of the expansion cycle, while the labor market continued to exert a strong influence on social indicators.

“Inequalities need to be combated through all public policies - not only through better targeting of social spending to the poorest, but also through a fairer distribution of taxes,” said Hecksher.

In 2024, the country recorded the lowest poverty levels in the series, yet 4.8 percent of the population lived below the extreme poverty line (USD 3 per day) and 26.8 percent below the poverty line (USD 8.30 per day).

More than 60 percent of the reduction in extreme poverty between 2021 and 2024 resulted from improved income distribution, according to the study’s breakdown.

The technical note points out that the progress observed in the post-pandemic period is likely to lose momentum with the end of the expansion of social welfare policies, making the labor market even more decisive in the coming years.

The authors warn that household surveys tend to underestimate very high incomes and some social transfers, requiring caution when interpreting the results.

The document concludes that the recent period represents an important structural change: after years of stagnation or regression, income, inequality, and poverty indicators have all improved simultaneously and rapidly.