The real revenue of the Brazilian manufacturing industry grew again in November 2025, but the sector’s labor market continues to decelerate. Industrial indicators released this Monday (Jan. 19) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) show that employment in the sector fell for the third consecutive month, despite a recovery in activity.

According to CNI, the slowdown in employment intensified from September onward, reflecting the effects of monetary tightening and the gradual weakening of industrial activity in the second half of the year.

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Main industry figures for November:

• Real revenue: 1.2 percent increase compared to October;
• Industrial employment: 0.2 percent drop, the third consecutive contraction;
• Employment since September: accumulated decline of 0.6 percent;
• Employment for the year: 1.7 percent increase between January and November 2025.

According to Marcelo Azevedo, manager of Economic Analysis at CNI, employment responded to the improvement in activity that began in 2023 and peaked in 2024, but started to lose momentum with the increase in the Selic rate, which began last year. The Selic rate is the economy’s basic interest rate and is currently at 15 percent per year. It is also the main instrument used by the Central Bank to control inflation.

“Only after months of weaker results in industrial activity did employment begin to be affected,” Azevedo explains, emphasizing that layoffs and rehiring are costly for industry, which depends on skilled labor.

Labor Market: Brief relief, negative annual balance

Other labor market indicators improved in November, after a series of negative results, but continue to accumulate losses for the year.

Real wage bill:

Increase of 1.5 percent in November, after four consecutive declines;
Decrease of 2.3 percent year to date.

Average real income:

Increase of 1.6 percent in the month;
Decrease of 4 percent from January to November.

Loss of momentum

Despite revenue growth in November, industrial activity continues to show signs of a year-to-date slowdown.

Accumulated revenue in 2025:

Increase of only 0.3 percent

Hours worked in production:

Decrease of 0.7 percent in November;
Increase of 0.9 percent year to date.

Installed capacity utilization (ICU):

A 0.6 percentage point decrease in November, to 77.5 percent;
2.4 percentage points below the level of November 2024.

According to CNI, the gradual reduction in revenue growth throughout 2025 reinforces expectations of an industrial slowdown, especially in the second half of the year, amid high interest rates and less dynamic demand.

The president of the Brazilian Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, on Tuesday (Jan. 13) signed an international manifesto in defense of the independence of monetary authorities and in support of US Federal Reserve (FED) Chair Jerome Powell. The initiative comes amid attacks by US President Donald Trump, who is pushing for a faster reduction in interest rates in the country.

According to the Central Bank, the joint statement “reaffirms the technical autonomy of institutions as a central pillar of global economic stability” at a time of growing political tensions surrounding monetary policy decisions both abroad and in Brazil.

Monetary autonomy

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In the manifesto, central bank presidents emphasize that institutional independence is “fundamental to ensuring price stability and the well-being of citizens,” never disregarding the rule of law, transparency, and democratic accountability.

By signing the text, Galípolo positions Brazil alongside institutions such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – a Swiss-based body that functions as the central bank of central banks. Monetary authorities from Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, and South Korea also signed the document.

Powell’s term ends in May this year.

On Monday (12), Galípolo met with Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts President Vital do Rêgo to discuss the issue. Market participants believe that publicly defending the independence of central banks works to reinforce confidence in the technical conduct of monetary policy amid a global scenario of increased volatility and uncertainty.

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance celebrated the official inflation result for 2025. The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) ended the year at 4.26 percent, within the target system and marking the fifth-lowest rate recorded since 1995, the start of the Real Plan, as announced on Friday (Jan. 9).

The ministry’s executive secretary, Dario Durigan, who is serving as acting Minister of Finance during Fernando Haddad’s vacation, said the result consolidates a scenario of greater economic stability and reinforces the government’s goal of delivering the lowest accumulated inflation of a presidential term since the creation of the Real.

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“The 4.26 percent rate is the lowest IPCA since 2018. But in 2018, unemployment was at 11.6 percent. Now it’s at 5.2 percent. We are delivering low inflation and low unemployment,” stated Durigan in a social media post.

Another point highlighted by Durigan was the more moderate behavior of food prices, which rose by 1.43 percent during the year, contributing to the slowdown in the overall index. In the food and beverage group, inflation stood at 2.95 percent, well below the 7.69 percent recorded in 2024.

“With the economic and fiscal stability that we have restored to Brazil, we are reaping strong GDP growth, low unemployment, increased real labor income, and declines in poverty, extreme poverty, and inequality. Make no mistake: 2026 will be no different!” he declared.

In 2025, official inflation remained below the target ceiling of 4.5 percent, amid a contractionary monetary policy stance, with the benchmark interest rate at 15 percent per year, the highest level since 2006.

Planning

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, also celebrated the result. In a social media post, she highlighted the positive impact of the slowdown in prices on the cost of living for the population.

“As important as staying within the target is the low inflation for the item that matters most: food. Less than half of the 2024 level. More food on the table for Brazilians, who saw a real increase in the minimum wage,” she added.

Brazil registered its second-largest net dollar outflow in history in 2025, according to preliminary data released on Wednesday (Jan. 7) by the country’s Central Bank. The total exchange flow was negative at USD 33.316 billion, second only to 2019, when it reached USD 44.768 billion.

Despite the significant outflow, Brazil’s currency, the real, appreciated throughout the year, supported by high domestic interest rates and a decline in the dollar on international markets.

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The negative performance was mainly driven by the financial channel, which accumulated a net outflow of USD 82.467 billion in 2025, the second largest in the historical series, behind only 2024. This channel includes foreign direct and portfolio investments, profit remittances, interest payments, and other financial operations.

The commercial channel recorded a net inflow of USD 49.151 billion, which was not enough to offset the overall outflow of dollars.

According to the Central Bank, the main factor behind the lower dollar inflow through the commercial channel was the increase in imports. The volume of foreign exchange contracted for external purchases reached USD 238 billion, the second largest figure on record, behind only 2022. Exports, in turn, totaled USD 287.5 billion during the year. Unlike the trade balance, which includes only exports and imports that have already been carried out, the exchange flow also encompasses operations such as advance payments and advances on foreign exchange contracts.

Outflow in December

In December, the exchange rate flow was negative at USD 13.562 billion, lower than in the same month of 2024, when it reached USD 27 billion. The result reflected a net outflow of USD 20.982 billion through the financial account, partially offset by an inflow of USD 7.421 billion through the trade account.

Traditionally, December concentrates remittances abroad for dividend payments. In 2025, these remittances intensified as companies and investors sought to anticipate the end of the income tax exemption on international remittances, which became taxable in January 2026.

The exchange flow is composed of two parts: the trade flow, which measures foreign exchange settlements for exports and imports, and the financial flow, which covers investments in companies, loans, and transactions in financial markets. Central Bank data show that the dollar outflow last year occurred through the financial channel.

Pressured by the growth of imports and lower commodity prices (primary goods with international pricing), Brazil’s trade balance ended 2025 with a smaller surplus than in 2024, despite recording the best result for a December since 1989. Last year, exports exceeded imports by USD 68.293 billion, a 7.9 percent decrease compared to the surplus registered in 2024.

The figures were released on Tuesday (Jan. 6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Despite the setback, this was the third-largest annual trade surplus since the beginning of the time series, in 1989.

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Both exports and imports hit record highs. Even with US tariffs and the fall in commodity prices, especially oil, sales abroad totaled USD 348.676 billion, a 3.5 percent increase compared to 2024.

Benefiting from economic growth, however, imports increased at a faster pace. Last year, Brazil bought USD 280.382 billion from abroad, a 6.7 percent increase.

Resilience

In a press conference, Brazil’s Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services Geraldo Alckmin said that the country’s foreign trade grew in 2025, even with tariffs and geopolitical difficulties.

“Our export volume grew by 5.7 percent. Global trade grew by 2.4 percent. So, we grew more than twice as much as global trade. This shows the resilience and good competitiveness of Brazilian products,” declared Alckmin.

In December, the trade balance registered a surplus of USD 9.633 billion, a 107.8 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This was the highest result for the month in the time series, which began in 1989, surpassing the previous record surplus of USD 9.323 billion in December 2023. Imports also reached a record value for the month.

The value of exports and imports in December was as follows:
Exports: USD 31.038 billion, a 24.7 percent increase compared to December of last year;
Imports: USD 21.405 billion, up 5.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

Products

The main products responsible for the growth in exports in December were: non-monetary gold (up 88.7%), soybeans (up 73.9%), crude oil (up 74%), and beef (up 70.5%).