A key point in Brazilian President Lula’s speech at the Mercosur meeting on Saturday (Dec. 20) was the risk of armed conflict in South America in the face of the threat of US military intervention in Venezuela – which could lead to an attempt to overthrow the current regime of President Nicolás Maduro, possibly triggering a new war of unpredictable proportions in the region.

“More than four decades after the Falklands War, the South American continent is once again haunted by the military presence of an extra-regional power. The limits of international law are being tested,” he said, adding that “an armed intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe for the hemisphere and a dangerous precedent for the world.”

Right now, US troops surround the Caribbean Sea on the Venezuelan border under the pretext of combating drug trafficking. A blockade has been set up to prevent the navigation of oil tankers from the Caribbean country, one of the largest oil producers on the planet.

Oil is the heart of Venezuela’s economy, and US action could cause financial suffocation for the country.

Since September, approximately 25 attacks on vessels in the Caribbean have been carried out by US military forces, killing at least 95 people.

“Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before – Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us,” US President Donald Trump stated in recent days.

The threat has heightened tensions and sparked speculation about what the real US interest in a regime change in Venezuela might be, beyond the alleged fight against drug trafficking.

In an interview with journalists last Thursday (18) at the Planalto presidential palace, Lula said he had held telephone conversations with both Maduro and Trump in an attempt to find a diplomatic solution to the situation.

“I told President Maduro that if he wanted Brazil to help with anything, he had to say what he would like us to do. And I said to Trump, ‘If you think Brazil can contribute, we will be very interested in talking to Venezuela, talking to you, talking to other countries so that we can avoid an armed conflict here in Latin America and in our beloved South America.’ And Brazil really appreciates this, because we share many kilometers of border with Venezuela,” he said at the time.

“Negotiations could be held without war. So, I am always concerned about what lies behind this. Because it cannot be just a matter of overthrowing Maduro. What other interests are there that we are not yet aware of?” the Brazilian president questioned regarding the US motivations for the military threat.

Lula also promised to call Trump again before Christmas. The Brazilian president had already warned Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira not to travel too far from Brazil over the next few weeks in case the situation worsens.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Saturday (Dec. 20) that the signing of the long-awaited free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur – a bloc formed by Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which was scheduled to take place today, has been tentatively postponed until January.

The statement was made during the opening speech of the Mercosur Summit in Foz do Iguaçu, South Brazil. The meeting marks the end of Brazil’s presidency of the bloc, which will now pass to Paraguay for the next six months.

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Saturday’s meeting was also the date chosen by European leaders for the signing of the agreement to be finalized.

“We had the opportunity to send a key message to the world in defense of multilateralism and to strengthen our strategic position in an increasingly competitive global scenario. But, unfortunately, Europe has not yet made up its mind. European leaders have asked for more time to discuss additional agricultural protection measures,” Lula reported.

The agreement is now expected to be signed in January, he said.

“Yesterday, I received a letter from the presidents of the European Commission [Ursula von der Leyen] and the European Council [António Costa] in which they both express their expectation that the agreement will be approved in January,” the president stated.

Both Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa requested that the Mercosur Summit take place this Saturday, when they would be present, according to Lula, even in face of France’s well-known opposition to the trade agreement, due to fears of a loss of competitiveness in the agricultural sector.

The president reiterated that the postponement, however, was due to a problem with the Italian government, because of internal European Union issues regarding the distribution of funds for agriculture – and not opposition to the agreement itself.

Lula spoke about a telephone conversation he had with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on this issue and said that Europeans are committed to the agreement even though France is opposed to it.

“I had a telephone conversation with her [Giorgia Meloni]. She said verbatim that she will be ready to sign in early January. If she is ready to sign and only France is missing, according to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, there will be no possibility for France, alone, to block the agreement. The agreement will be finalized, and I hope it will be signed, perhaps in the first month of Paraguay’s presidency, by my colleague Santiago Peña [Paraguayan president],” Lula declared.

Background

Negotiated for 26 years, the EU–Mercosur agreement involves a market of 722 million people and a GDP of USD 22 trillion. When signed, it should be one of the most comprehensive free trade agreements on the planet.

In 2019, the general terms of the agreement, which began in 1999, were unveiled. Last year, in Montevideo, Uruguay, a partnership agreement was signed, on the basis of which the texts of the trade treaty itself could be drafted for subsequent final signature.

Further partnerships

In his speech at the opening of Saturday’s summit, President Lula stated that Mercosur will remain committed to expanding trade agreements with other partners.

He cited, for example, the agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) – a group of countries with a combined GDP of almost one and a half trillion dollars.

In the last six months, discussions began on expanding the agreement with India. In the same period, negotiations with the United Arab Emirates advanced, and talks with Canada resumed.

Also on the table are negotiations for a strategic partnership with Japan and a tariff preference agreement with Vietnam.

Lula also highlighted the need to expand regional trade among Latin American countries.

“In the region, we hope to make rapid progress in negotiating an agreement with Panama. We also need to update agreements with other South American countries – such as Colombia and Ecuador. Intra-regional trade in South America is far below its potential. It accounts for only 15 percent of trade flows, while in Asia and Europe it stands around 60 percent. The inclusion of the sugar-alcohol and automotive sectors in Mercosur rules could help to change this situation,” he went on to say.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Saturday (Dec. 20), during the Mercosur Summit, held in Foz do Iguaçu, South Brazil, that tackling organized crime should be one of the priorities of the bloc formed by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, regardless of the political profile of the countries’ governments.

He argued that the weakening of democratic institutions is one of the problems opening the way for illegal activities. The president also mentioned a series of initiatives underway in South American countries.

“Public safety is the right of citizens and the duty of the state, regardless of ideology. Mercosur has shown its willingness to tackle criminal networks jointly. More than a decade ago, we created a body of authorities specializing in anti-drug policies. Early this year, we signed an agreement against human trafficking. We created a commission to implement a common strategy against transnational organized crime. We established a specialized working group on asset recovery in order to stifle the sources of financing for illicit activities,” he declared.

Lula also advocated the regulation of digital environments to combat crime and announced an international meeting with security ministers to discuss the issue.

“We agree that the internet is not a lawless territory and we have adopted measures to protect children and adolescents and personal data in digital environments. Freedom is the first victim of a world without rules. But this is a struggle that goes beyond Mercosur. There is currently no South American body dedicated to this problem. Therefore, in consultation with Uruguay, Brazil intends to propose a meeting of the ministers of justice and public security […] to discuss how to strengthen South American cooperation in the fight against organized crime,” he stated.

Gender-based violence

At the Mercosur Summit, President Lula addressed the issue of violence against women – one of the main public safety challenges in Brazil, but also a problem in neighboring countries.

“Latin America also holds the sad record of being the most lethal region in the world for women. According to ECLAC [Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean], 11 Latin American women are murdered every day. Yesterday, I sent an agreement to the National Congress for ratification that will allow women who benefit from protective measures in one country of the bloc to have the same protection in other countries. I would like to propose to Paraguay – which is taking over the presidency of the bloc today – that we work to create a major Mercosur pact to end femicide and violence against women,” said the president, who has made repeated speeches proposing a national effort to combat gender violence.

Risk of military conflict

Another key point in Lula’s speech at Saturday’s Mercosur meeting was the risk of armed conflict in South America, given the threat of US military intervention in Venezuela, which could attempt to overthrow the current regime of President Nicolás Maduro and trigger a new war. Today, US troops surround the Caribbean Sea on the Venezuelan border, allegedly to combat drug trafficking.

“More than four decades after the Falklands War, the South American continent is once again haunted by the military presence of an extra-regional power. The limits of international law are being tested. An armed intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe for the hemisphere and a dangerous precedent for the world,” he warned.

In addition to advocating a doctrine of peace in South America, Lula defended democracy and praised the ability of Brazilian institutions to thwart an attempted coup d’état almost three years ago.

“Brazilian democracy survived the most serious attack it has suffered since the end of the dictatorship. Those responsible for the coup attempt on January 8, 2023, were investigated, tried, and convicted in accordance with due process of law. For the first time in its history, Brazil has settled its accounts with the past,” he argued.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Thursday (Dec. 18) he will veto the piece of legislation known as Dosimetry Bill, which would reduce the sentences of those convicted for the anti-democratic riots on January 8, 2023, and for attempting a coup d’état.

“People who committed crimes against the Brazilian democracy will have to pay. The trial isn’t even over – people are still being convicted – and folks are already deciding to reduce sentences. I’d like to tell you that, with all due respect to the National Congress, when it reaches my desk, I will veto it. This is no secret to anyone,” he stated.

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“Congress has the right to do things, I have my right to veto, then they have their right to overturn my veto or not. That’s how the game works,” he added in an interview with the press at the Planalto presidential palace.

The president also argued it is necessary to “finish this process” and also investigate those who financed the coup attempts. 

“We need to take what happened on January 8, 2023, very seriously, and there are people who want us to forget, but we cannot forget. Because if democracy forgets how important it is to a nation, we end up losing the game,” he said.

On Wednesday (17), in a roll call vote, the Senate approved the bill with 48 votes in favor and 25 against. The bill now goes to the president for approval.

The piece of legislation stipulates that crimes against the democratic rule of law and coup d’état, when committed in the same context, should incur the most severe penalty rather than the sum of both penalties.

The focus of the bill is a change in the calculation of penalties, “setting the minimum and maximum penalties for each type of crime, as well as the general method of calculating penalties [hence “dosimetry”], also reducing the time required for convicts to serve their sentence in jail before moving to an open regime.”

The changes could benefit defendants such as former President Jair Bolsonaro, as well as military personnel who participated in the coup plot and were convicted by the Supreme Court.

On Thursday, Lula welcomed journalists for breakfast at the presidential palace, followed by a press conference.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced on Monday (Dec. 8) that he intends to convene a meeting with representatives of the branches of government and social sectors to promote what he called an “educational task force” to combat violence against women. Amid a wave of femicide cases that have shocked the country, thousands of people in several cities took to the streets this weekend to denounce violence and demand freedom, respect, and safety for Brazilian women.

“It is important to involve the National Congress - the Senate and the House of Representatives - the Supreme Court, the Superior Court of Justice, the state courts of justice, trade unionists, evangelicals; we need everyone to join forces in an educational task force,” said Lula in a speech during the 14th National Social Assistance Conference, which is taking place in Brasília.

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The president did not specify a date but said he would try to hold the meeting by the end of the year.

“We must be outraged by violence toward women,” said the president, who again mentioned recent cases, such as the episode in São Paulo involving Douglas Alves da Silva, 26, who ran over and dragged Tainara Souza Santos, 31. The crime occurred on November 29. She had her legs amputated after being dragged under the vehicle for about 1 kilometer and remains hospitalized.

Lula also cited the case of a 39-year-old man arrested in flagrante delicto in Recife, also in late November, accused of setting a fire that killed his pregnant wife and the couple’s four children. The president once again called for male involvement in the fight.

“The plain and simple truth is that violence only has one side. It is not women who have to change their behavior, it is men,” he said.

Lula emphasized that he will make the fight against violence toward women his political struggle from now on. “Here in Brazil, we are going to have to create a movement. It is primarily an educational problem; we are going to have to learn in school and educate our children,” he added.

For the past week, Lula has been addressing the issue of gender violence at the official events he attends.

Violence

According to the National Map of Gender Violence, approximately 3.7 million Brazilian women have experienced one or more episodes of domestic violence in the last 12 months.

In 2024, 1,459 women were victims of femicide. On average, about four women were murdered every day in 2024 because of their gender, whether in contexts of domestic or family violence or due to contempt and discrimination related to their female status.

This year, Brazil has already recorded more than 1,180 femicides and nearly 3,000 daily calls to Ligue 180, Brazil’s national hotline for reporting violence against women, according to the Ministry of Women.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke on Tuesday (Dec. 2) about recent femicide cases that shocked Brazil, urging men to take responsibility for changing the culture of gender-based violence in society. He made the statement during an event in Ipojuca, in the metropolitan region of Recife, which marked the launch of works to expand the operational capacity of the Abreu e Lima Refinery (Rnest).

“I wanted to address us men. What goes on in the mind of this animal, considered the most intelligent species on Earth, to cause so much violence? I woke up on Sunday (Nov. 30) and during breakfast, Janja (the first lady) started crying. At night, while watching Fantástico (on TV Globo), she cried again. Yesterday (Monday), she cried once more,” said the president.

Lula said that the first lady asked him to take a “tougher stance” against violence by men toward women. He cited some of the most tragic incidents of violence recorded in recent days.

“This week, a man grabbed two pistols and fired them at his wife. Another killed his pregnant wife, who had three children, and set their house on fire. Yet another ran over his wife and dragged her for a kilometer. She will survive, but with both legs amputated. The question I ask is: does the Brazilian Penal Code have a penalty capable of bringing justice to an irrational animal like that?” he questioned.

Two of the cases cited by Lula occurred in the city of São Paulo. In one, a man fled after firing at least six times with two weapons at his ex-partner in a pastry shop where she worked, in the northern zone of the city, on Monday morning (Dec. 1). He did not accept the end of the relationship. The other case, also an attempted femicide, was committed by Douglas Alves da Silva, 26, who ran over and dragged Tainara Souza Santos, 31, on Saturday morning (Nov. 29), also in the northern zone of São Paulo. She had both legs amputated after being dragged under the vehicle for about a kilometer and remains hospitalized.

In Recife, a 39-year-old man was arrested on the spot on Saturday, suspected of starting a fire that killed his pregnant wife and the couple’s four children.

“Each of us men needs to be a teacher to one another. Each of us has to educate our children, and each of us has to educate our partners. If you’re not happy with your partner, please be a grown man - don’t hit her, just separate from her. If she doesn’t like you, she isn’t obligated to stay with you; let her live her life. Don’t imprison that person, don’t be cruel, don’t be ignorant. Because when you think about it, there’s no punishment for a man like that - even death is too mild. There needs to be a national movement of men against the animals who beat, abuse, and mistreat women,” Lula continued.

Femicide is the homicide of a woman committed because of her gender, characterized by domestic or family violence, contempt, or discrimination against the female condition. It is considered the most extreme expression of gender violence and often occurs as the culmination of a history of aggression, motivated by hatred, dehumanization, or a sense of ownership over the victim. In Brazil, it is classified as a heinous crime and, when treated as an aggravating circumstance in homicide, carries a prison sentence of twelve to thirty years.

Since January, 207 women have been killed in the state of São Paulo alone as victims of femicide. In October, there were 22 victims of this type of crime and another 5,838 women who suffered intentional bodily harm.

Male awareness

Also in his speech, the president recalled being raised by his mother, along with five siblings, and taught never to act violently toward women. He called on men to demonstrate character, dignity, and respect, and renewed his appeal for a collective effort by men to confront gender violence.

“From now on, I am part of a movement of men who will begin raising awareness in this country that men were not born to beat women, to rape children, or to commit violence. Raise your hand if you are with me in this fight. We are going to have a strong campaign,” he emphasized.

Refinery

Considered Petrobras’ most modern refinery, Rnest will receive approximately BRL 12 billion in investments to complete processing unit 2 and carry out additional maintenance on processing unit 1, which is expected to add 130,000 barrels per day to the plant’s processing capacity. The refinery is estimated to reach 260,000 barrels per day by the end of the project in 2029. According to the state-owned company, it will supply 17 percent of the country’s diesel demand and will also produce gasoline, LPG, and naphtha.