The relaxation of restrictions in 2019 on weapons previously limited to security forces, such as 9 mm semi-automatic pistols, during Jair Bolsonaro’s first year in office, led to some of these weapons being diverted into the hands of criminals.

This finding is contained in the study Arsenal do Crime (Arsenal of Crime), released this week by the Sou da Paz Institute, a non-profit organization that advocates for the disarmament of society.

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The survey shows that seizures of 9 mm pistols more than doubled from 2018 to 2023. In 2018, there were 2,995 seizures, a number that jumped to 6,568 in 2023, representing an increase of 119 percent.

The data refer to four Brazilian states in the southeast: Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.

In 2018, the 9 mm caliber was the fifth most seized in the country. It represented 7.4 percent of the total industrial weapons. By 2023, it was already the second most common, with 18.8 percent of seizures, second only to the 38 mm revolver. During this period, a total of 255,000 weapons were seized.

Collectors, sport shooters, and hunters

The Sou da Paz study links the increase in seizures to the 2019 decree issued during the Jair Bolsonaro administration, which made it easier for collectors, sport shooters, and hunters (CACs) to obtain weapons.

Among that government’s determinations, 9 mm pistols were no longer considered for the exclusive use of security forces. In addition, sport shooters could obtain up to 30 weapons. Since the election campaign, the relaxation of gun use - framed as an attribute of the freedom of defense - had been one of the banners of then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro.

Researchers at Sou da Paz believe that this relaxation has led to a transformation in the illegal arms market in southeastern Brazil.

“The shift from revolvers to pistols represents a dramatic increase in the offensive capacity of criminals,” the study notes.

The document explains that while revolvers are limited to five or six shots and require a slow reloading procedure, pistols allow almost instantaneous reloading and use magazines with 12 or more rounds, enabling rapid and continuous firing.

The document also points out that the 9 mm caliber expels the projectile with 40 percent more energy and greater range.

Bruno Langeani, project coordinator at the Sou da Paz Institute, says that easing access to firearms “has allowed a large influx of this more powerful weapon into the legal market.”

“This has led to a very high number of such weapons in private homes, which allows for what we call good-faith diversion - when someone who bought a weapon for sport shooting or self-defense has it stolen or robbed,” he adds.

In addition, he states that the change in regulation was “very poorly done and with little oversight.”

“It opened the door for bad-faith diversion - a faction recruiting someone with no criminal record to buy these weapons and then divert them to crime,” explains Langeani.

The institute’ survey also presents information on the seizure of larger weapons. From 2018 to 2023, the recovery of rifles, machine guns, and submachine guns grew by 55.8 percent in the southeastern states, from 1,115 to 1,738.

In the specific case of rifles, Rio de Janeiro recorded 3,076 seizures - more than double the number in the other three states combined (1,411).

Stricter rules

In 2023, a month after the change of government, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launched a re-registration process for weapons held by the public.

“It is very important, and it requires a segment of the Federal Police to look into these purchases and verify whether the weapons are no longer in their owners’ possession,” argues the coordinator of the Sou da Paz Institute.

In July 2023, a decree restored the exclusive use of 9 mm pistols to security forces.

Another measure taken by the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration was to transfer responsibility for overseeing the registration of CACs from the Army to the Federal Police. The measure was signed in 2023, and the transfer of jurisdiction took effect in the second half of the year.

As one way to reduce the number of weapons in the hands of criminals, Bruno Langeani argues that more states should have police stations specialized in combating arms trafficking, known as Desarmes, which are currently present in only six of Brazil’s 27 states.

Brazil’s official inflation closed out November at 0.18 percent, bringing the country’s price index IPCA to 4.46 percent over 12 months.

As a result, the IPCA returns to the government’s target range of up to 4.5 percent for the 12-month period. In the 12-month span ending in October, the rate was 4.68 percent. The index had been outside the tolerance range for 13 months. 

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The data were released Wednesday (Dec. 10) by the statistics bureau IBGE.

The November figure is the lowest for the month since 2018, when the variation stood at -0.21 percent.

In October, the IPCA had been 0.09 percent. The main impact on the acceleration from October to November was the price of airline tickets, which rose 11.9 percent, representing 0.07 percentage points of the total inflation for the month.

Target

The government’s inflation target is three percent over 12 months, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below – a maximum of 4.5 percent.

Since the beginning of 2025, the target assessment period has been based on the previous 12 months, rather than just the end of the year (December). The target is considered unmet if the tolerance range is exceeded for six consecutive months.

According to research manager Fernando Gonçalves, if December inflation stays at up to 0.56 percent, the country will end the year with the IPCA at the upper limit of the government’s target. The December result will be announced on January 9.

The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages. In total, prices are collected for 377 products and services. As it stands today, the minimum wage is BRL 1,518 (USD 277.18). Prices are collected in ten metropolitan areas across Brazil.

Interest rates

On Wednesday night, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to announce the Brazilian benchmark interest rate, the Selic, currently at 15 percent per year — the highest level since July 2006 (15.25%).

The upward trend began in September last year, due to the Central Bank’s concern about rising inflation.

The Selic is the government’s main instrument for combating inflation. High interest rates make credit more expensive and discourage investment and consumption, thus acting as a brake on the economy, reducing demand for products and services and cooling inflation as a result.

More than 8.6 million Brazilians left the poverty line in 2024. This socioeconomic performance brought the share of the population living in poverty down from 27.3 percent in 2023 to 23.1 percent. It is the lowest level recorded since 2012, when the Brazilian statistics agency IBGE began compiling these data.

In 2024, Brazil had 48.9 million people living on less than USD 6.85 per day, equivalent to about BRL 694 per month, adjusted for inflation that year. This is the threshold the World Bank uses to define the poverty line. In 2023, 57.6 million Brazilians were living in poverty.

The data are part of the Summary of Social Indicators survey, released on Wednesday (Dec. 3).

The indicators show a third consecutive year of decline in both the number and proportion of poor people, marking a post-pandemic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis that began in 2020.

See how poverty has evolved in the country:

• 2012: 68.4 million
• 2019: 67.5 million (last year before the pandemic)
• 2020: 64.7 million
• 2021: 77 million
• 2022: 66.4 million
• 2023: 57.6 million
• 2024: 48.9 million

In 2012, the proportion of people below the poverty line was 34.7 percent. In 2019, it stood at 32.6 percent. In the first year of the pandemic (2020), it fell to 31.1 percent and reached its highest point in the series in 2021, at 36.8 percent. Since then, it has declined year after year, from 31.6 percent in 2022 to 23.1 percent last year.

Work and income transfer

IBGE researcher André Geraldo de Moraes Simões, responsible for the study, explained that in 2020, the year the pandemic broke out, poverty declined because of emergency assistance programs, such as Emergency Aid, paid by the Brazilian government.

“These benefits returned in April 2021, but with lower amounts and more limited access, and the labor market was still fragile, so poverty increased,” said Simões.

According to him, beginning in 2022, the labor market started to recover, accompanied by assistance programs with higher benefit amounts, factors that supported socioeconomic improvement.

“The combination of a stronger labor market and expanded income-transfer programs - mainly Bolsa Família and Auxílio Brasil, which rose in value and reached more people - contributed to this outcome,” he noted.

In the second half of 2022, the Auxílio Brasil program began to pay BRL 600 per month to low-income families. In 2023, the program was renamed Bolsa Família.

Extreme poverty

In the last year, Brazil also saw a decline in extreme poverty, defined as living on an income of up to USD 2.15 per day, or about BRL 218 per month when adjusted for last year’s values.

From 2023 to 2024, this contingent fell from 9.3 million to 7.4 million, meaning that 1.9 million people left this condition. This evolution caused the proportion of the population in extreme poverty to drop from 4.4 percent to 3.5 percent, the lowest level ever recorded.

In 2012, when these data began to be compiled, the rate stood at 6.6 percent. In 2021, it reached 9 percent, equivalent to 18.9 million people.

Regional inequality

The IBGE figures clearly show regional inequality: both poverty and extreme poverty in the North and Northeast remain above the national rate.

Poverty
• Northeast: 39.4 percent
• North: 35.9 percent
• Brazil: 23.1 percent
• Southeast: 15.6 percent
• Midwest: 15.4 percent
• South: 11.2 percent

Extreme poverty
• Northeast: 6.5 percent
• North: 4.6 percent
• Brazil: 3.5 percent
• Southeast: 2.3 percent
• Midwest: 1.6 percent
• South: 1.5 percent

“These are the country’s most vulnerable regions, and this is also reflected in their labor markets,” says André Simões.

Another inequality highlighted in the survey is racial: among white Brazilians, 15.1 percent were living in poverty, and 2.2 percent in extreme poverty.

Among black Brazilians, poverty reached 25.8 percent, and extreme poverty 3.9 percent. Among the mixed-race population, the figures were 29.8 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

Lowest Gini since 2012

The Summary of Social Indicators updated the so-called Gini Index, which measures income inequality. The index ranges from 0 to 1 - the higher the number, the greater the inequality.

In 2024, the Gini Index reached 0.504, the lowest value since these data began to be compiled in 2012. In 2023, it stood at 0.517.

To measure the impact of social programs on reducing inequality, IBGE presented a calculation of what the Gini Index would be if there were no welfare policies.

The study found that the indicator would be 0.542 if there were no income-transfer programs, such as Bolsa Família and the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), which provides one minimum wage per month to seniors aged 65 or older or to people with disabilities of any age.

Another hypothetical exercise carried out by the researchers examined the situation of people aged 60 or over if there were no social security benefits.

Extreme poverty among the elderly would rise from 1.9 percent to 35.4 percent, the institute projects. Poverty would increase from 8.3 percent to 52.3 percent.

The survey also shows that poverty was more prevalent among informal workers. Among those employed without a formal contract, one in five (20.4%) were poor. Among workers with a formal contract, the share was 6.7 percent.

Brazil’s unemployment rate reached 5.4 percent in the quarter ending in October – the lowest recorded by the statistics bureau IBGE since 2012. The period also ended with a record number of people with formal employment and average worker income. The data were released Friday (Nov. 28).

Survey highlights include:

• Unemployment in the quarter ending in October fell to 5.4 percent. In the previous moving quarter ending in September, it stood at 5.6 percent. In the quarter ending in October 2024, the rate was 6.2 percent.
   
• The highest rate ever recorded was 14.9 percent, reached in two periods – in the moving quarters ending in September 2020 and March 2021, both during the COVID-19 pandemic.
   
• The number of unemployed reached 5.910 million – the lowest number in the historical series. This total represents a drop of 11.8 percent (788 thousand fewer people looking for work) compared to the same quarter of 2024. The total number of employed people stood at 102.5 million, a record high.
   
• The total number of employed people with formal contracts reached 39.182 million, another record in the survey.
   
• Total payroll – the increase in income and the growing number of employed people meant that the total income of workers reached a record BRL 357.3 billion, a five-percent increase in one year.

High interest rates and maximum income

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IBGE’s Household Survey Coordinator Adriana Beringuy points out that income acts as a stimulus to the economy, counterbalancing high interest rates, which make credit more expensive and tend to slow down the economy. “Having this income at high levels has an influence on consumption,” she says.

The Brazilian economy’s benchmark interest rate – the Selic – stands at 15 percent per year, the highest level since 2006. This is an effort by the Central Bank to curb inflation, which has been above the government’s target of 4.5 percent for 13 months.

Sectors

Of the ten activity groups surveyed, two saw an increase in employment – construction (2.6 percent, or 192 thousand more people) and public administration, defense, social security, education, human health, and social services (1.3 percent, or 252 thousand more people). The only sector to see a decline was classified as other services (2.8 percent, or 156 thousand fewer people).

Labor market

The survey assesses labor market behavior for people aged 14 and over and takes into account all forms of employment – whether formal or informal, temporary or self-employed, for example.

According to the institute’s criteria, only people who actively sought employment in the 30 days prior to the survey are considered unemployed. A total of 211 thousand households are visited across all Brazilian states plus the Federal District.

Informality

In the quarter ending in October, the informality rate – the proportion of the employed population not benefiting from labor rights – stood at 37.8 percent, representing 38.7 million informal workers. This is the same level as in the quarter ending in July and the previous moving average, and below the 38.9 percent recorded in the quarter ending in October 2024.

Ministry of Labor and Employment

The survey was released the day after another labor market indicator was prepared by the Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Employment, which only tracks formally registered employees.

In it, October saw a net increase of 85,100 formal jobs. Over 12 months, the balance is positive at 1.35 million formal jobs.