A study conducted by the Center for Research on Macroeconomics of Inequalities (MADE) at the University of São Paulo (USP) revealed that online gambling reduced consumption, withdrawing BRL 120 billion to BRL 141 billion from economic activity – equivalent to 0.9 to 1.1 percent of the country’s GDP – in the year 2025.

“To put this magnitude into perspective, the estimated loss corresponds to somewhere between 40 and 50 percent of the economy’s total growth in 2025 and is about five times greater than estimates of the impact of US tariffs on Brazilian GDP. Even when taking into account estimates of direct and indirect jobs created in connection with online betting platforms, the picture remains virtually unchanged,” the study concludes saying.

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The study estimates that this reduction in economic activity results in a loss of tax revenue ranging from BRL 31.1 billion to BRL 54.8 billion.

“Even after deducting the approximately BRL 9 billion collected directly from gambling platforms, the net effect on public finances would still be negative by at least BRL 22 billion, potentially reaching as high as BRL 46 billion.”

According to the researchers, this figure represents 10 to 20 percent of the total public health budget in São Paulo in 2025 – indicating that, even though gambling generates direct revenue, the loss of economic activity it causes more than offsets that revenue.

The study concluded that, from an economic perspective, the problem of gambling is not limited to individual effects but also has macroeconomic consequences; by diverting income from households – especially lower-income ones – gambling can increase inequality, reduce demand, and significantly impact GDP, in addition to reducing tax revenue and affecting public finances.

The Brazilian economy grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter. According to IBGE, Brazil’s government statistics agency, GDP reached BRL 3.4 trillion during the period. The data were released on Tuesday (Sep. 1).

Compared with the second quarter of 2025, the total value of goods and services produced in the country rose by 2 percent.

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Over the past four quarters, GDP expanded by 1.9 percent.

The Focus bulletin, a Central Bank survey of financial market institutions released on Monday (Aug. 31), projects 1.92 percent GDP growth for 2026.

Production

GDP can be calculated from the perspective of production, which analyzes economic activity, or expenditure, which includes consumption and investment.

From the production perspective, agriculture and livestock stood out, with a 2.8 percent increase from the first to the second quarter. Over 12 months, the increase reached 6.2 percent.

Manufacturing rose 0.1 percent from the first to the second quarter and 1.4 percent over 12 months, with the extractive industry standing out, surging 3.4 percent quarter-on-quarter.

The services sector, which accounts for the most employment in the economy, grew 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and 1.7 percent over 12 months. The information and communication subsector led the increase, at 2.1 percent.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation, an indicator of investment, grew 1.2 percent during the quarter.

Demand

From the demand side, government consumption rose 0.4 percent, while household consumption declined by 0.4 percent.

In the external sector, exports fell 0.8 percent, while imports rose 1.8 percent compared with the first quarter of 2026.